Tricky forecast-- but snow seems likely most areas Monday night into Tuesday.

I've been watching a storm for the past few days and it was a challenge based on which wave would be the "show"-- wave one or two and that made a difference on our forecast. It appears now that wave 1 will be the show and most of the state will see some snow falling.

Models struggled if the storm would JUST be energy along the polar jet, marked with the 1. Some thoughts were we needed it to phase with piece 2 to get a big storm. It now appears the polar jet energy will be enough to foster a storm.

As of now, Sussex is the highest risk of a good snowfall, Kent second and New Castle last-- but all regions should see some type of snow. New Castle's odds are HIGHEST to get shut out.. but I see that as unlikely at this time.  

I will start my guess at 3-6 for everyone SOUTH of Dover and 2-4 for everyone north. Decent shot that we have to got 4-8 Sussex and 3-6 rest of the state, but I want to wait another round of model runs. 

No major changes Big snows on the way

Not much to update as the forecast is much more complicated in my neck of the woods. (Lynchburg, VA) than most of Delaware. Event should start as rain and transition UP to freezing rain, sleet then snow.

Statewide 6-10 inches, with a few places seeing a foot. (Central DE may be the bulls-eye if I had to guess at this point, but that can change. Will be amazing cold tomorrow with temps tumbling into the teens as the event progresses.

Single digits to near 0 Tuesday AM.

Another BIG event on Tap

Well, Delaware people:

More snow.

Model trends: For a while, it appeared this would be a mix bag of sleet and freezing rain, ending as snow from north to south. If there has been any trend, it's been getting the cold air in FASTER with less ice and more snow.

Now,trends are good-- but just know and remember that systems have been known to charge north on the models in the last 2 days. The air mass coming is SUPER cold- like 4 standard deviations below normal, so I'm more comfortable than usual with the models but we could end up with MORE ice and less snow.

I'm attaching the NWS Philadelphia/Mt Holly snow forecast map. It's pretty good-- they also have total "ice accumulation" map as well.

Sunday should be mild for a while with temps approaching 50!, maybe warmer down in Sussex County. By late evening-- temps will start falling quickly as rain quickly moves to freezing rain, sleet and finally snow. Temps will be falling ALL day Monday with temps in the TEENS and low 20's with snow falling.

Will update as needed.

Snow update:

Mix bag on the way..cold air leaving, storm hugs the coast

Sussex County

Trace to 4 inches, then heavy rain, ends as snow.

Kent County: 4-8 inches, then sleet and rain ending as snow.

New Castle County 6-10, sleet, rain ending as snow

Thursday Snow update- Big storm a lock, snow vs ice vs rain unknown at this time.

Challenging event on tap for those forecasting the Wilmington, Dover and Newark Delaware areas.

Bitter cold start to Wednesday morning with lows in the SINGLE digits maybe even a few places BELOW zero.

Storm forms down in the gulf of Mexico.

Cold air is in place, but slowly leaving.

Storm starts over night Wednesday into Thursday. 

Storm COULD be a little to close to the coast for most of the state for a HUGE snow.

Most of Sussex County will be a burst of snow, MAYBE and then rain.

Kent-- snow to ice to rain, ending as snow. Could be a decent snow before it changes over

New Castle should be a decent front end snow that goes to rain and drizzle, should end as snow.
Front side THUMP of snow could be significant of 6+ inches first. Back side could add a few more inches.

If you're wanted more snow days, hope the low doesn't hug the coast and heads away quicker. At this time, I think the low goes from near Wilmington NC, to RIGHT near Rehoboth. Without a strong block to hold the cold air in place, much of the state will battle rain for at least a while. 6+ is very possible in New Castle County even with the rain and ice, and 4+ is very possible with the chance in Kent. Sussex will struggle to see much more than rain as currently progged.

Will updated later.

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Light to moderate snow event on Tap Sunday night into Monday.

Clipper system will approach from the west Sunday night and bring ANOTHER round of winter weather.

We are back in the climatology pattern of  more snow north and west of Philly.

As of now:

Most of Sussex County- flurries and snow showers that coat the ground at best

Kent County: light snow. Coating south, up to an inch North.

New Castle County: Inch south of the C and D Canal, up to three inches near the PA line.

Here is a liquid equivalent map from a model called the GFS:

lighter shade is under .1, grows in increments of .1,

Much of the New Castle is in the .2 range.  This will be a drier snow so ratios could be more like 13-15 to 1. (Snow is often stated to be 1 inch of rain makes 10 inches of snow)

I think a Winter Weather Advisory is issued for New Castle County from the NWS. Kent County is a big MAYBE at this time, depending on model trends.

Weekend Update

A few winter weather events are on the way to greater Delaware area. 

Over the weekend from the famous 30 inch FB blizzard, 2 separate blips of moisture will head in and impact the area. Both will be minor with maybe a coating to an inch both on Saturday and Sunday. Not a big deal at all.

Monday, a more potent system approaches from the west and has a shot to drop an inch or two, especially north of Dover. Anything this far out has a high rate of change. 

Wednesday- Thursday another low approaches out of the Gulf of Mexico, but the cold air is leaving as the storm approaches. This seems to have the makings of the "Delaware Special" of snow to sleet to rain. 

Note on this map where I've made some crude marks:

1. High Pressure East of Maine-- that's moving east and taking our cold air supply with it. 

2. Low pressure over Minnesota. That's not good having that to our NW because it turns the flow aloft to the SW, which eventually aides in the warming process.

3. We do have a Gulf of Mexico low, which is a good thing. 

Please know-

Weather models over 5 days are used for pattern ideas, not specifics. No real give ideas on accumulations because they would be highly subject to change. In certain situations you can make an educated guess, the pattern this year has been unstable and what's called a "north trend" on the models has been an issue. Think of the Monday snow last week where at first it was modeled as a Central VA event, then a DC event with Delaware being fringed, then jackpot Delaware, and finally it was mainly a rain event with the best snows being north of the PA border. 

Days 3-4 should allow for a general concepts and ideas, but the fine details will lacking and subject to change. You can lose a storm to model error after day 5-- days 3-4 should allow for more confidence, just finer details will be missing and subject to change. 

Days 1-2 should be fine tuning the details like how much snow, when will it change to rain, ice--ect. 

Weather models are a tool to use along with forecasting skill and knowledge of local climate that allows for better forecasting. Often, when a weatherman is wrong is because they don't have exact data. If you were asked to estimate spending over a 7 day period, you could get a general idea but the EXACT amount be off. Weather models are very skilled in that they have to do a ton of estimation based on CURRENT information. However, the details will always be cloudy the farther out any event is.